July 28, 2022 – Real gross domestic product (GDP) fell at an annual rate of 0.9% in the second quarter of 2022 (Table 1), according to the “advance” estimate published by the Bureau of Economic Analysis. In the first quarter, real GDP fell by 1.6%.
The GDP estimate released today is based on source data that is either incomplete or subject to further revision by the source agency (see “Base data for pre-estimate” on page 3). The “second” estimate for the second quarter, based on more complete data, will be published on August 25, 2022.
The decrease in Real GDP reflected declines in private inventory investment, residential fixed investment, federal government spending, state and local government spending, and non-residential fixed investment that were partly offset by increases in exports and personal consumption expenditure (PCE). Imports, which are a subtraction in the calculation of GDP, increased (Table 2).
The decline in private investment in inventories was led by a decline in retail trade (mainly general merchandise stores as well as motor vehicle dealerships). The decline in residential fixed investment was driven by a decline in “other” structures (particularly brokerage commissions). The decrease in federal government spending reflects a decrease in non-military spending that was partially offset by an increase in defense spending. The decrease in non-military spending reflects the sale of crude oil from the strategic petroleum reserve, which results in a corresponding decrease in consumer spending. Since oil sold by the government goes into private stocks, there is no direct net effect on GDP. Lower state and local government spending was driven by lower infrastructure investment. The decrease in non-residential fixed investment reflects decreases in structures and equipment which were largely offset by an increase in intellectual property products. The increase in imports reflects an increase in services (led by travel).
The increase in exports reflects increases in goods (led by industrial supplies and materials) and services (led by travel). The increase in PCE reflects an increase in services (led by food and accommodation services as well as health care) which was partially offset by a decrease in goods (led by food and beverages).
Real GDP fell less in the second quarter than in the first quarter, falling 0.9% after a 1.6% drop. The smaller decline reflects a recovery in exports and a smaller decline in federal government spending which was partially offset by larger declines in private inventory investment and state and local government spending, a slowdown in the PCE and declines in non-residential and residential fixed investment. fixed investment. Imports have slowed.
GDP in current dollars rose 7.8% year on year, or $465.1 billion, in the second quarter to $24.85 trillion. In the first quarter, GDP increased by 6.6%, or $383.9 billion (Tables 1 and 3).
The gross domestic purchases price index increased by 8.2% in the second quarter, compared to an increase of 8.0% in the first quarter (Table 4). The PCE Price Index increased by 7.1%, the same rate as in the first quarter. Excluding food and energy prices, the PCE price index rose 4.4% against a rise of 5.2%.
Personal income in current dollars increased by $353.8 billion in the second quarter, compared to an increase of $247.2 billion in the first quarter. The increase primarily reflects increases in compensation (led by private wages and salaries), landlord income (both non-farm and farm), personal income receipts on assets, and rental income (Table 8) .
Personal disposable income rose $291.4 billion, or 6.6%, in the second quarter, compared to a decline of $58.8 billion, or 1.3%, in the first quarter. Real personal disposable income decreased by 0.5%, compared to a decrease of 7.8%. Personal savings was $968.4 billion in the second quarter, compared to $1.02 trillion in the first quarter. The personal savings rate— personal savings as a percentage of personal disposable income — was 5.2% in the second quarter, compared to 5.6% in the first quarter.
Source data for the preliminary estimate
Information on the source data and key assumptions used in the preliminary estimate are provided in a technical note published with the press release on the BEA website. A detailed “Key Source Data and Assumptions” file is also published for each release. For more information on GDP updates, see the “Additional Information” section that follows.