CITY OF MEXICO.
Amid a pandemic, the point estimate of gross domestic product (GDP) revealed that the economy grew 1.5% in the second quarter of 2021 compared to the first.
In its annual comparison, GDP grew 19.6% compared to the collapse of -18.7% in the same quarter of 2020, the National Institute of Statistics and Geography (Inegi) reported.
According to the report, it was the tertiary activities, which includes the trade and services sector, that gave it a strong impetus, with growth of 2.1% in the second quarter of the year, followed by primary or agricultural activities. , with an increase of 0.6 percent.
For Banorte analysts, the biggest support for the economic rebound has been a larger reopening given the improved environment surrounding the pandemic between April and June.
The economy has accumulated several positive surprises during the first six months of 2021 and the progress of the vaccination campaigns allows us to have good expectations ”, acknowledged the experts of the Monex financial group.
THE ECONOMY ACCELERATES ITS RECOVERY
The timely estimate of gross domestic product (GDP) indicates that the economy grew by 1.5% in the second quarter of 2021 compared to the first and with that, at an annual rate and with seasonally adjusted figures, the growth was 19.6%, reported the National Institute of Statistics and Geography (Inegi).
The main economic impetus was provided by tertiary activities, which include the trade and services sector, with growth of 2.1% in the second quarter of the year, followed by primary or agricultural activities, with an increase of 0.6% and the secondary or industrial sector with an increase of 0.4 percent.
For Banorte analysts, several factors were supported, the most important being a greater reopening in the face of improving the environment on the pandemic, with new cases at a minimum and the epidemiological indicator of traffic lights also at its best levels around the end of May.
In addition, confidence levels, both among consumers and businesses, have improved significantly.
The economy has accumulated several positive surprises in the first six months of 2021 and the progress of vaccination campaigns allows good expectations for domestic demand in the following quarters, ”agreed experts from the financial group Monex.
When examining preliminary GDP data, in the second quarter of the year, the economy would have been 2.4% below the level it was in the fourth quarter of 2019, before the pandemic.
In its annual comparison, GDP increased by 19.6% compared to the collapse of 18.7% in the same quarter of 2020 recorded at the end of 2020, ”explained Monex experts.
They abounded that the recovery appears closer for all sectors and could be completed in 2022 if the more negative scenarios related to the current escalation of infections caused by the Delta variant of the coronavirus do not materialize.
We assume that the latest covid-19 epidemic will not lead to a strict lifting of health measures, since vaccination has reduced mortality, but it could cool the reopening and distort the behavior of households ”, commented the economists of the Bx + financial group. .
For Banorte, with the new wave of covid-19 and the progress already made in the recovery, there would be a slowdown in economic activity and greater challenges for the third quarter.
PROJECTIONS FOR ALL 2021
After the preliminary GDP results, financial experts have confirmed their growth estimates for 2021. On the one hand, Banorte maintains it at 6.2%, considering that the recovery so far remains in line with its forecasts.
Bx + economists have reaffirmed their outlook of 5.8%, with the risk that the spread and lethality of the virus will increase; and that disruptions in global supply chains spread.
Monex has revised its forecast from 5.6% to 6.5%, in case the more negative scenarios do not materialize.